Executive Summary Botswana is likely to remain stable due to the lack of political corruption, free and open democracy, and the continued growth of the economy for the next twelve to eighteen months. The country holds periodical general elections, both at a national and local level. The main sources of revenue for the country come from the vast tourism industry and the profitable mining sector. However, social unrest based on lack of employment opportunities and the prevalence of water disparity could threaten the continued stability of the country.
Elections within the country rank at the top of African countries, in reference to amount of corruption.[i] Multiple parties exists within the nation; however, opposition parties to the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), such as the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), recently gained more support from citizens.[ii] In the 2014 elections, the UDC won the largest majority of Parliamentary seats of any opposition party.[iii] The party increases popular support through a platform focused on diversification of the economy and creation of jobs.
The country’s economy relies heavily on its natural resources, including tourism of indigenous animals and landscape, as well as multiple mineral deposits. Large urban areas and population hubs center around areas of economic performance, such as the game reserves and mines. These industries rely on the environment, while also damaging the resources beyond sustainable levels. Mines currently utilize underground water resources for production, surpassing the recharge rate of these aquifers.[iv] The government prioritizes middle to higher income and population dense areas when distributing remaining potable water. Inadequate management in response to the increased demand in urban areas leads to food shortages, and disrupts business, health, and education programs.[v] These factors, in addition to the high youth unemployment within the country[vi], increases the risk of social unrest that would compromise the stability of Botswana.
The investment of USD 100 million into water allocation, treatment, and distribution services could combat the risk of civil unrest and the influence of China in the country. China provides scholarships for students to study abroad, rather than continuing education within Botswana. The implementation of improved water management resources will not only lower the level of education disruption for youth, but also provide job opportunities and economic diversity. This course of action decreases the need for Chinese investment into youth programs and key infrastructure and the country’s influence in Botswana. The creation of improved education systems and more jobs lower the possibility of social unrest and support continued stability within the country.