Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) helps to map arguments and clarify the weight of evidence against two binary hypotheses. In the case of this project, the analyst assessed the evidence against two hypotheses: stable or unstable. Utilizing ACH helps analysts to organize their arguments and understand the consistency or impact of evidence on a particular hypothesis.
Positive Economic and Democratic Trends Sustainable Factors for Stability
Executive Summary
Botswana is likely to remain stable for the next twelve to eighteen months due its open democracy and economic progress. The country’s lack of corruption in public office, free and consistent elections, and economic growth support continued sustainability. However, instability is more likely if unemployment related social unrest were to erupt.
Discussion
Botswana ranks 34th out of 180 countries in corruption levels, one of the highest in Africa.[i] In addition to this, the country holds local elections simultaneously with general elections.[ii] Citizens elect 57 members of the main governmental body, the National Assembly.[iii] This body then selects the president to a five-year term following the general elections.[iv] The structure of elections and government created provides citizens equal opportunity to participate and hold power.
The country experienced an average of five percent growth over the last decade, as the economy continues to expand.[v] The largest sector that contributes to this success is diamond mining, which accounts for one third of government revenue.[vi] In addition, Botswana holds preferential trade status with the United States through the African Growth and Opportunity Act, renewed through 2025.[vii] Economic progress and trade with large global partners underscore the likely tract of stability within the country.
Despite positive trends within Botswana leading toward continued stability, the potential for social unrest could possibly call this stability into question within the next twelve to eighteen months. Citizens between the ages of 15 and 29 make up one-third of the population.[viii] The unemployment rate for this demographic is approximately 25 percent.[ix] Youth fail to foster skills and qualities in their education to become hirable, and the government minimally supports this demographic.[x] Without policies to combat the rising issue of youth unemployment, social unrest and instability becomes more likely.
Botswana is likely to remain stable for the next twelve to eighteen months due its open democracy and economic progress. The country’s lack of corruption in public office, free and consistent elections, and economic growth support continued sustainability. However, instability is more likely if unemployment related social unrest were to erupt.
Discussion
Botswana ranks 34th out of 180 countries in corruption levels, one of the highest in Africa.[i] In addition to this, the country holds local elections simultaneously with general elections.[ii] Citizens elect 57 members of the main governmental body, the National Assembly.[iii] This body then selects the president to a five-year term following the general elections.[iv] The structure of elections and government created provides citizens equal opportunity to participate and hold power.
The country experienced an average of five percent growth over the last decade, as the economy continues to expand.[v] The largest sector that contributes to this success is diamond mining, which accounts for one third of government revenue.[vi] In addition, Botswana holds preferential trade status with the United States through the African Growth and Opportunity Act, renewed through 2025.[vii] Economic progress and trade with large global partners underscore the likely tract of stability within the country.
Despite positive trends within Botswana leading toward continued stability, the potential for social unrest could possibly call this stability into question within the next twelve to eighteen months. Citizens between the ages of 15 and 29 make up one-third of the population.[viii] The unemployment rate for this demographic is approximately 25 percent.[ix] Youth fail to foster skills and qualities in their education to become hirable, and the government minimally supports this demographic.[x] Without policies to combat the rising issue of youth unemployment, social unrest and instability becomes more likely.