About this Project
Requirement
This document contains an assessment of the stability of Botswana in the next 12 to 18 months, conducted as part of a long-term country study. In addition, and based on the conclusion, further analysis determined the best course of action for the investment of USD 100 million into the country. The course of action proposed promotes further stability in the country, over the time period previously noted. The analytic methods employed to come to this conclusion were Indicator Analysis, Link Analysis, Geospatial Analysis, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, and Multi-Criteria Decision Matrix Analysis. The Intelligence Collection Plan organized sources referenced in pursuit of this analysis.
Terms
Analytical Confidence: the statement used to clarify the analyst’s assumptions, gaps of knowledge, and limitations in order to convey to the decision-maker the level of uncertainty associated with any given analysis
Limitations
The analyst conducting this analysis is an undergraduate student studying intelligence analysis, with little subject matter expertise and a novice standing as a practitioner. The student held responsibilities in addition to the research, analysis, and writing of this country-study. Time constraints based on other classwork, limited devoted class-time, and the 15-week period of the semester limited the depth and breadth of knowledge. Finally, the analyst used Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in the assessment of the country’s stability.
Analytical Confidence
There is a moderate level of confidence in this conclusion, based on the number and quality of OSINT sources utilized, as well as the limited assumptions and opportunity for denial and deception.